Image: 100 Years Old
Beating the Odds - Health

What Are the Odds of Living to 100?

By DiscoverTheOdds.com
Updated March 6, 2024

Relative to the course of human history, and even in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, life expectancy is up. Thanks to a number of factors, including advances in our understanding of health, wellness, and longevity, people are living longer than ever. Nonetheless, living to the age of 100 remains a remarkable and somewhat rare feat. But, just how rare?

The short answer: Less than 1%. People living to the age of 100 or older, referred to as centenarians, make up less than one percent of the U.S. population.

  • Research increasingly reveals that a number of variables impact the odds of living to 100 such as mindset, daily activity, diet, and genetics.
  • The odds of living to 100 vary by geography, with differences in longevity seen across states within the United States and also globally, from country to country.
  • The odds of living to 100 are higher for women in comparison to men.
  • The odds have changed over time and across generational cohort

The role of mindset, activity, food, and genetics

The best-selling book, Ikigai: The Japanese Secret to a Long and Happy Life, draws inspiration from interviews with the residents of a Japanese village that boasts the highest percentage of 100-year-olds. The book emphasizes the importance of having a strong sense of purpose and meaning in our daily lives, referred to in Japanese as “ikigai” or “reason for being.”

In his widely read and highly influential, The Blue Zones: 9 Lessons for Living Longer from the People Who’ve Lived the Longest, Dan Buettner invited readers to discover ways people all over the world have increased their odds of living to 100. The 2022 follow-up cookbook, The Blue Zones American Kitchen: 100 Recipes to Live to 100, encourages American readers to unearth tasty ways to support their longevity right at home.

Big picture perspectives: Geography, gender, and generation

Centenarians around the world

The United States falls behind other developed countries in terms of the proportion of centenarians to the total population:
Bar Chart" Centenarians in Developed Countries

Centenarians in the United States

According to the U.S. Census Special Report on Centenarians, in 2010, there were 53,364 centenarians in the United States or 1.73 per 10,000 people in the total population. The Centenarian Special Report also shed light on a few interesting facts about centenarians alive today:

Centenarians across states and regions in the U.S.

There are state and regional differences within the United States in terms of just what share of the population has reached the 100-year mark. For instance, centenarians comprise a higher proportion of the total regional population in the Midwest and Northeast and a lower share in South and the West.

Map: Centenarians by state

Map: Centenarians by U.S. State

The odds dramatically higher for women than for men

While life expectancy has risen overall, women continue to live longer than men, a trend that is reinforced in current data on centenarians. Women make up 82.8% of individuals age 100 years and older while men make up just 17.2%.

The odds of living to 100 change over time and generational cohort

Overall, the trend for life expectancy is one of increase. Since 1970, life expectancy in the U.S. has risen by nearly a decade, from 70.8 years to 79 years today. Additionally, in 2011 in the United Kingdom (where life expectancy is 81 years old, roughly two years higher than in the United States), the Department for Work and Pensions released a report listing the chances of living to age 100 by year of birth:

Odds-of-Living-to-100-line-chart


Image Credit: flickr/the_junes

2 Comments on “What Are the Odds of Living to 100?

  1. I will be 90 in January 2019. I would like to make it to 95. Are my chances pretty good? Mother lived to 88 she had a stroke. My father lived to 72, Died from heart failure. Both of his parents died in their 60’s. Heart failure also mothers parents died mother 75 stroke, father 85, cancer.

    1. First of all, congratulations on your upcoming 90th birthday in 2019! That you’ve reached the age you have is certainly something to celebrate. Your chances of making it to 95 really depend on a number of variables, some known and some unknown. The impact of heredity or health predispositions related to your family history play a role, as you seem to have anticipated, based on the information you’ve mentioned here. Diet, lifestyle, your relationships, both in terms of their quality and quantity and the unforeseen, may all contribute as well. Some things will simply be beyond your control, but studies are increasingly showing that by and large, people who address the factors that they do have control over in their daily lives tend to get more favorable outcomes overall in terms of longevity that those who do not.

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